India-Pakistan Crisis Escalates Following Kashmir Attack.
Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply intensified following a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. In response to India’s punitive actions, the Pakistani government introduced a series of countermeasures, including closing its airspace to Indian flights, halting Indian transit through Pakistan, cutting off trade, and demanding a reduction in India’s diplomatic presence in Islamabad.
While India has not formally named the group behind Tuesday's attack, it swiftly suspended a major water-sharing treaty with Pakistan and revoked visas for Pakistani citizens, citing Pakistan's alleged support for terrorism. Pakistan, denying any involvement, condemned India's actions as “unilateral, politically driven, and illegal.” It warned that attempts to block river waters—vital for Pakistan’s agriculture—would be seen as an act of war. The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and seen as a rare symbol of cooperation, now hangs in the balance.
Initially, Pakistan responded with restraint after the attack, which killed over two dozen civilians. But with Indian leaders signaling potential military action, fears are mounting. Television debates in both countries have grown increasingly aggressive, and analysts warn of dangerous consequences if the situation escalates.
Former diplomat Najm us Saqib predicted that regional instability could worsen in the coming months. Accusations have flown between both countries: Indian media pointed to Pakistan, while Islamabad accused India of trying to divert attention from its internal security failures. Western intelligence has long suggested Pakistan allows anti-India groups to operate on its soil, a claim Pakistan denies.
The latest attack has drawn comparisons to the 2019 Pulwama bombing, which led to airstrikes and a brief aerial battle. However, analysts say this incident is more volatile because the victims were unarmed civilians, and no group has clearly claimed responsibility.
As of Wednesday, no Indian military buildup had been observed, though Pakistan’s forces remain on alert along the Line of Control. A senior Pakistani security official noted that Pakistan would respond with caution to any escalation but remain ready to defend itself.
Some in Pakistan even claim India orchestrated the attack for political gain, suggesting it was timed to coincide with a high-level U.S. visit. On TV, retired General Ahmed Saeed Minhas mocked India's response, referencing the 2019 capture of an Indian pilot, saying: “Last time we served tea, maybe this time we’ll add biscuits.”
While the 2019 crisis was narrowly defused, experts warn that today’s climate—with fewer diplomatic channels and heightened rhetoric—is more dangerous. Asfandyar Mir of the U.S. Institute of Peace noted that the lack of backdoor diplomacy has raised the risk of miscalculation.
Former minister Murtaza Solangi added a stark warning: “If India doesn’t pull back, both nations stand to lose in this madness.”